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Old 2016-06-25, 09:40 PM   #21
Clay
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As I said on facebook (communicating with several of the people in this thread already), I was just happy that the decision was made without any violence. I was then informed by Mr. Brendocon that in fact, no, the decision was not made without incident and in reality an MP was killed over the matter some days ago. Then I was sad again.

My question is just how binding a single vote on the matter can be, especially with so slim a majority. I would have thought that, in the event of something less than a 2/3s majority, a country would need additional referendums at, say, six months and a year after the initial one to make sure the voting result is consistent. Or, you know, something more. Here in the US, to do something comparatively minor like amending the constitution requires a 2/3s vote in congress just for a proposal and then a 3/4s vote to pass and be added in.

The idea that a country could vote itself out of the EU with one referendum and with so marginal a majority seems like a slapdash oversight in the EU constitution, but I can understand that the process wasn't thoroughly planned out because this situation wasn't really anticipated.
 
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Old 2016-06-25, 09:48 PM   #22
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Funnily enough, back in March Nigel Farage said that if Remain won with a 52/48 margin there should be a second referendum as that's not enough of a majority to be decisive. Of course, now his side has won with a 52/48 majority, he won't hear a word of it.

The likely outcome is that whoever is the next PM won't trigger Article 50 (which will lead to a full exit) straight away and will in fact do everything in their power NOT to trigger it. Judging by their body language, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are absolutely bricking it
 

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Old 2016-06-26, 12:08 AM   #23
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My question is just how binding a single vote on the matter can be, especially with so slim a majority.
My understanding is that the referendum isn't legally binding at all to begin with, whether it was 50%+1 in favour or 99% in favour. The only thing making it so is that the government said it would be, and they didn't seem to want to bring up the "what if the margin is super slim?" topic because they thought that the side they supported was the one that'd be squeaking out a narrow victory.

After Quebec so narrowly avoided separating in the 90s, Canada passed a law dealing with exactly this sort of thing: essentially it left it up to Parliament to decide whether or not a majority was "big enough" so that the country didn't get broken up by a near 50/50 draw. Countries who've never been though this before would have no reason for laws like that, though you'd think the recent vote in Scotland would have at least brought the idea to mind.

Really, it was hugely irresponsible to frame the referendum as a "we'll definitely leave if you vote that way" thing to begin with. The smart thing to do would have been to treat it like a union strike vote, so that they could take it to the EU and say "we've got a mandate to go if you don't give us a better deal".

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The idea that a country could vote itself out of the EU with one referendum and with so marginal a majority seems like a slapdash oversight in the EU constitution
Well, that's part of the problem: there's no such thing as an "EU constitution", just a series of treaties between the different members that establish the basic framework. As I understand it, the entirety of the legal framework for leaving comes down to just a single sentence in the Lisbon Treaty: "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."

They tried to establish a proper constitution at one point, but it was shot down by some of the members, leaving the EU running a framework that's pretty vague and watered down compared to most proper countries. In retrospect they're probably regretting that...

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Two things in mind---the Greek referendum from last year was not binding. A 67% on "no to austerity measures" was answered by even harsher austerity measures and there were no riots on the street.
Really? The news has been telling me that you've had violent anti-austerity riots there for half a decade, including right after the referendum, and ongoing to this day. Maybe you have different standards for what counts as a riot over in Europe, but masses of rock throwing and shit getting torched is usually enough to qualify over here. And that's not counting Golden Dawn marauding around beating the shit out of Turks or whatever the hell they do, either...

Is the news exaggerating how bad things can get over there? Or are Greeks just so used to that shit that it doesn't even reach the bar of a proper riot for you anymore? Not sarcastic, I'm genuinely curious.

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I also don't see how this can be constituted as a democratic "vote" when a good portion of the country, the very people that will have their rights challenged while paying taxes and contributing all the while, the EU migrants, did not get a say in this.
You shouldn't take this personally, but I think that's silly. It's up to the British people to decide what direction they want Britain to go in, not anyone else, and I can't think of any country that lets non-citizens vote on things like this. If you want a say in how things are run you should apply for British citizenship (if and when you qualify...IMO it should be easy for EU people to "formally" move to a new member country and become citizens but somehow I doubt it is...). And if you're not willing to go to the trouble, then that says something about how committed you are to living in the UK long-term.

I understand if you disagree, but I've always believed that the right to vote is something that should be part of the full package of rights and responsibilities that come with being a citizen.

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Funniest thing in the whole referendum debate were the ethnic minorities talking against immigration, how EU migrants are making things worse for them. That's segmentation at it's worst; once Nigel and co mop up the dirty Europeans, who's the next set of "dirty" expendable non British folk that people will conveniently put all the blame on?
Oh, the racists will definitely turn on some other group after they've chased out as many of you Euros as they can. In fact, they'll probably do so even more virulently, because the government is almost certainly going to up the number of people they let in from third-world countries to make up for the workforce they just pointlessly chased off. It makes the whole exercise pointless and silly, and that's something the government should have made clear during the campaign. If the bigots knew that they were just voting to trade Poles for more Pakistanis, some of them may have seen the futility of it all and gone back to their holes.
 
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Old 2016-06-26, 01:01 AM   #24
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For the record, it wasn't actual racism that won the referendum, it's just that Leave tapped into the enormous wells of xenophobia this country has. And yes Warcry, the referendum result is absolutely not legally binding and the government can in fact ignore it forever. My guess is that a full on exit from the EU will not happen, and whoever is made leader of the Tories, but Prime Minister in title only, will start negotiations for a "better deal" with the EU because leaving completely and negotiating some sort of Swiss lite deal with the single market will take decades to complete
 

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Old 2016-06-26, 07:31 AM   #25
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@Warcry, you're right that the EU is basically a framework thingy thing. Which is why I think it needs to be something more than that if the EU as a concept is actually going to have legs and a sustained existence and be something more than an organisation that does piddly stuff that annoys its members.


It'll be interesting to see what happens next to Britain.
 
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Old 2016-06-26, 08:17 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Warcry View Post
My understanding is that the referendum isn't legally binding at all to begin with, whether it was 50%+1 in favour or 99% in favour. The only thing making it so is that the government said it would be, and they didn't seem to want to bring up the "what if the margin is super slim?" topic because they thought that the side they supported was the one that'd be squeaking out a narrow victory.

Really, it was hugely irresponsible to frame the referendum as a "we'll definitely leave if you vote that way" thing to begin with. The smart thing to do would have been to treat it like a union strike vote, so that they could take it to the EU and say "we've got a mandate to go if you don't give us a better deal".

Well, that's part of the problem: there's no such thing as an "EU constitution", just a series of treaties between the different members that establish the basic framework. As I understand it, the entirety of the legal framework for leaving comes down to just a single sentence in the Lisbon Treaty: "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."

Really? The news has been telling me that you've had violent anti-austerity riots there for half a decade, including right after the referendum, and ongoing to this day. Maybe you have different standards for what counts as a riot over in Europe, but masses of rock throwing and shit getting torched is usually enough to qualify over here. And that's not counting Golden Dawn marauding around beating the shit out of Turks or whatever the hell they do, either...

Is the news exaggerating how bad things can get over there? Or are Greeks just so used to that shit that it doesn't even reach the bar of a proper riot for you anymore? Not sarcastic, I'm genuinely curious.


You shouldn't take this personally, but I think that's silly. It's up to the British people to decide what direction they want Britain to go in, not anyone else, and I can't think of any country that lets non-citizens vote on things like this. If you want a say in how things are run you should apply for British citizenship (if and when you qualify...IMO it should be easy for EU people to "formally" move to a new member country and become citizens but somehow I doubt it is...). And if you're not willing to go to the trouble, then that says something about how committed you are to living in the UK long-term.

I understand if you disagree, but I've always believed that the right to vote is something that should be part of the full package of rights and responsibilities that come with being a citizen.


Oh, the racists will definitely turn on some other group after they've chased out as many of you Euros as they can. In fact, they'll probably do so even more virulently, because the government is almost certainly going to up the number of people they let in from third-world countries to make up for the workforce they just pointlessly chased off. It makes the whole exercise pointless and silly, and that's something the government should have made clear during the campaign. If the bigots knew that they were just voting to trade Poles for more Pakistanis, some of them may have seen the futility of it all and gone back to their holes.
You are right, the referendum is not binding. A referendum, actually, is not binding, so any Government can turn around and say "ok you've had your say, we'll think about it" or something as generic and be done with it.

The timing was off---Cameron negotiated his "deal" with the EU prior to the referendum so he played his end card right at the beginning, which might have robbed him of momentum.

I guess you are right, I have become too used to riots like that in Greece, which says a lot about how things are, but the news are also exaggerating things. Such riots are very small scale [comparatively], biggest riot in my lifetime was in 2008 or so, 7th of December, where a teenager was shot dead by a cop. Now yes, -that- was a city wide riot. Golden Dawn have thankfully lost a lot of momentum with a [in theory at least] Leftist Government in power.

I want to have a say into how things are run but I can only apply for citizenship after 5 years [more than halfway through it, and unless the laws change drastically, officially a citizen before the EU exit] but Scotland, as far as I am aware, did let non-nationals vote as long as they exercised residency rights in their last referendum. What's silly is that I can vote [and have done so] on things like local elections, appointed a new police chief and so on, but not on this.

It does not look like anybody is contemplating chasing anybody off at this point [heck, even the Leave Campaign just dismissed their immigration pledge!] but you are right. Give the people false legitimacy to chase off anybody that's labelled an external "threat" to their lives or lifestyle and that's it. EU nationals, selective EU nationals, overseas nationals, commonwealth nationals...the list can continue for quite some time if you amend the "hate" settings to anything other than nationality.
 

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Old 2016-06-26, 11:13 AM   #27
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It does not look like anybody is contemplating chasing anybody off at this point [heck, even the Leave Campaign just dismissed their immigration pledge!] but you are right. Give the people false legitimacy to chase off anybody that's labelled an external "threat" to their lives or lifestyle and that's it. EU nationals, selective EU nationals, overseas nationals, commonwealth nationals...the list can continue for quite some time if you amend the "hate" settings to anything other than nationality.
it's already started
 

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Old 2016-06-26, 05:37 PM   #28
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He thinks movement of EU citizens is fine, but has voted out of the EU so he can stop people coming in from Africa, Syria and Iraq. Which, er, aren't part of the EU... so we... er... already have control of who comes in from those places.
Unfortunately the new measures on income that were brought in as part of that control were (to me at least) done so to placate growing far right sentiment or to be seen to be "doing something" about immigration.

I voted remain because it made more sense to me. On a personal level though I voted remain so my girlfriend would not face uncertainty about her future in this country. Which now, thanks to that income threshold for non EU citizens, she is.

The plan was to go to Ireland and work for 3 months, meaning that on my return she would be the partner of an EEA citizen and not a British citizen, thus allowing her to stay. now this seems unlikely to be possible, we just don't know what we'll do when her visa runs out.

Unless we just say "sod it" and make a new life back in Lagos.
 

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Old 2016-06-28, 04:04 PM   #29
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@Warcry, you're right that the EU is basically a framework thingy thing. Which is why I think it needs to be something more than that if the EU as a concept is actually going to have legs and a sustained existence and be something more than an organisation that does piddly stuff that annoys its members.
I think a big part of the issue is that none of the members want to give up their sovereignty, and that really limits what the EU can do. Countries seem to love the idea of it...right up until it tells them to update their agricultural standards or take in refugees or stop running up their national debt to such ridiculous levels that it hurts everyone else using the Euro. Then they flip out and tell the EU to piss off and get their nose out of the country's business. The only way the EU will ever truly work is if the sovereignty is vested in them with the various national governments being legally and constitutionally subordinate. But how do you convince 28 different countries to give up their national sovereignty to a "super-nation" where they'll be a minority and may have their wishes overridden for the betterment of their neighbours?

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Golden Dawn have thankfully lost a lot of momentum with a [in theory at least] Leftist Government in power.
Well, that's good news at least. Fascists can piss off.

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What's silly is that I can vote [and have done so] on things like local elections, appointed a new police chief and so on, but not on this.
What's extra silly is that if I lived there, I would have been allowed to vote because I'm a citizen of a Commonwealth country. I'm not entirely sure what the logic is there -- maybe they just never got around to updating the laws since the days when we were all British subjects and technically shared citizenship? That makes just as much (or little) sense as letting EU residents vote, and I can't see any justification for doing one at not the other, so I think I agree with you now. If Canadians or Aussies or Kenyans were allowed to vote then why the hell weren't Greeks or Poles? That's just nonsensical.

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I voted remain because it made more sense to me. On a personal level though I voted remain so my girlfriend would not face uncertainty about her future in this country. Which now, thanks to that income threshold for non EU citizens, she is.

The plan was to go to Ireland and work for 3 months, meaning that on my return she would be the partner of an EEA citizen and not a British citizen, thus allowing her to stay. now this seems unlikely to be possible, we just don't know what we'll do when her visa runs out.

Unless we just say "sod it" and make a new life back in Lagos.
None of my business obviously, but if you're looking to dodge immigration rules, can't you do it the old-fashioned way and marry her? I mean, if you're serious enough about the relationship to consider running off to Nigeria with her... Or does that not make it easier to get UK residence?
 
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Old 2016-06-28, 04:59 PM   #30
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I'm not sure about where Electro Girl's good lady is from, but I know at least two people with non-EU partners who are required to be earning a certain amount of money before that partner is allowed in the country. One is currently working 7 days a week at Tesco on nights to try and meet that criteria.

On EU news generally; I'm mildly surprised how many people aren't bothered about the ecconomic collapse. Not as in, "It's a low priority as the country burns" but who just think it's going to bounce back quickly even though everything so far has been exactly in line with the predicted total disaster and there's no one actually in charge of the economy at the moment.

Plus, all the austerity meassures we've suffered under (which have actively killed people) were originally introduced to deal with the last time we lost our AAA rating. With it gone again all of that was for nothing.
 
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Old 2016-06-28, 05:17 PM   #31
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I'm not sure about where Electro Girl's good lady is from, but I know at least two people with non-EU partners who are required to be earning a certain amount of money before that partner is allowed in the country. One is currently working 7 days a week at Tesco on nights to try and meet that criteria.
That makes sense to me. The reason I was curious was because he made it sound like she was already there on a visa and they were worried about her being sent home once it expired. That sounds like it would be a different situation than someone trying to get in in the first place, but I don't know your laws so maybe it isn't. I think it would be here, because our immigration policy (to the extent that I understand it, anyway) usually gives preferential treatment to people who are already within our borders.

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On EU news generally; I'm mildly surprised how many people aren't bothered about the ecconomic collapse. Not as in, "It's a low priority as the country burns" but who just think it's going to bounce back quickly even though everything so far has been exactly in line with the predicted total disaster and there's no one actually in charge of the economy at the moment.
If anything it actually seems like it might be worse than what was being forecast, but is it really a surprise that common people aren't panicking yet? Most people don't really pay attention to the economy until it impacts them personally. If things don't bounce back, and people start to lose their jobs and see their pensions gutted, then the man on the street will take notice. Until then, it's just numbers on a screen that they don't understand, or maybe something they even celebrate because they think it'll hurt the rich the most.
 
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Old 2016-06-30, 03:48 PM   #32
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Currency and stocks/shares will be moderately volatile for a while yet, but not excessively so due to the uncertainty. But what will start happening with that uncertainty is investment will start getting pulled, leading to redundancies and the like. And if the government is truly dumb enough to go full Article 50, they're going to have to figure out how to make up those shortfalls in EU subsidies, while funding an enlarging benefits pool and hitting their deficit targets.

And so today, Boris pulled his campaign to be PM leaving us with either Michael Gove or Theresa May to be next in line. On the other side, Labour continue putting the knife into Jeremy Corbyn while they should be attacking an obviously petrified Tory part
 

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Old 2016-06-30, 07:05 PM   #33
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None of my business obviously, but if you're looking to dodge immigration rules, can't you do it the old-fashioned way and marry her? I mean, if you're serious enough about the relationship to consider running off to Nigeria with her... Or does that not make it easier to get UK residence?
Even marriage won't work. The income threshold still applies.
 

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Old 2016-07-01, 02:45 PM   #34
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I have litterally no idea what's going on any more. Any EU citizens here I can marry and go live with before it's too late? Slartibartfast?
 
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Old 2016-07-01, 07:58 PM   #35
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I have litterally no idea what's going on any more. Any EU citizens here I can marry and go live with before it's too late? Slartibartfast?
I really, really, *REALLY* think people should stop up and panicking about what *might* happen down the line because until Article 50 is invoked, nothing will change, and once Article 50 is invoked, there will be 2 years until a "Brexit" actually happens. And as there is currently no Prime Minister, and won't be one in place until September and then probably subjected to a snap election (if the opposition gets their goddamned act together), the *earliest* Article 50 could be invoked would be October this year, but it's more than likely October next year before it does (if it does, more on this below).

But there is a very high chance that Brexit as proposed by the Leave side will never, ever come to pass and it all comes down to migration: put simply, absolutely any deal made with the EU with regards to access to the single market is dependent on free movement of labour. Switzerland, long held as the sort of trade deal the UK would like to do in a Brexit scenario, has been told that if it does enact its referendum to set a quota on immigration, it will terminate it's access to the single market. So... we obey all EU laws, but pay them no money, but can't control immigration? BAD

Of course, there's the Norway model which is like the Swiss one but on steroids: Norway kicks in to the EU budget and receives a loss on its investment but only receives a moderate say on who that is spent, let alone any new rules, laws and regulations that the EU decides to enforce, or have a veto on any of them. When we're taking back control and follow the Norway model, what control are we taking back because, yup, we still have to allow the free movement of labour and so don't solve this pesky immigration problem.

I'd imagine that should our PM trigger Article 50 if he or she had, you know, gone on a 72 hour coke bender and completely lost their mind, they'd aim for a Norway model with more say on border control and less kickbacks to the EU and those two things will never ever happen.

So as to why Article 50 will not be triggered? Because there is a strict timetable from when it's triggered to when it's enabled. All current EU law has to be separated from UK law and go through the regulatory and statutory process that requires; some sort of trade deal with the EU for access to the single market will need to be hammered out and quickly, unless the Government wants to spend hundreds of millions of pounds on new safety and regulatory testing facilities at every port and airport in the country; some sort of principle trade deals will need to be signed with everyone else we trade with - and all of this has to be done within TWO YEARS. Oh, and we don't have any trade negotiators employed anywhere within the civil service. Like none.
 

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Old 2016-07-01, 10:07 PM   #36
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On the other hand, I'd say apathy and "It wouldn't happen here" and "Things will bounce back" is exactly why we're in this situation, the left and the middle have been too relaxed whilst the right and the biggots have been passionate. It's time to stomp feet and get angry and shout because even if it's only a slim chance the absolute worse might happen we should be proactive about preventing it.

Plus the real damage has been done, the schism within the country has been created and the racists feel legitimised. If we do stay or adopt a Norway situation that won't change. We have to do what we can (which fot most of us is just refusing to accrpt these things as normal and loudly saying so) to stop the extremists getting even more of a foothold. One of the people standing to be the next PM thinks gays can be cured. This is not a time for meek acceptance, or it will happen here.
 
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Old 2016-07-01, 11:05 PM   #37
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I genuinely don't think that anyone on the leave campaign, after fighting a campaign squarely on racial lines, didn't think we'd devolve as badly as we have done so far. BUT... to say the country is going to swirl down the drain to the far right is perfectly possible but still fixable. And the way to fix it is to get Prime Minister installed, like, now, and a coherent opposition to fight her all the way. Hell, even a Prime Minister who will willing admit "we cannot give you all the bells and whistles Leave wanted because they were absolutely insane, and here's why" would be enough for now. The Anti-Fash will deal with skirmishes as they come up, like the "migrant sweep" they're opposing in Southampton tomorrow
 

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Old 2016-07-02, 10:10 PM   #38
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I'm not sure how this will work out. With the near 50/50 split in the country, if the UK government does go for the option of a Norway deal (the preferred option for most businesses), then they are potentially looking at social unrest. Although I don't know if we'd see anything on the scale of the Poll Tax Riots.

The delay in sorting a new PM is unwelcome, but frankly I didn't see that getting sorted before the Parliamentary recess. Which has made me think it was an odd time to hold the referendum as even if Cameron had remained PM, there'd be this void before anything got sorted.

I dunno, this has just all turned into a huge mess in less than a week and the only good thing to come out of it is that at least we won't have Boris as PM. Or Crabb for that matter.

I think Patapsco, you're spot on in that our politicians really needed to spell out and explain how deeply linked we are to the EU and what undoing all that will actually mean. Sadly, the entire run up to the referendum made such a poor job of doing that. And no one's really explained what undoing our EU membership will mean and how much it will affect us. There's only farmers that are properly bricking it at the moment - and with good reason. I really can't see the UK government pulling 8 billion out of their deficit to keep farming afloat. Suddenly that 320 million we'll be getting back looks like very small change indeed.
 
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Old 2016-07-03, 11:00 AM   #39
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If anyone wants an analogy to what's going on in British politics right now: imagine the two ferries scene from The Dark Knight, but instead of bomb detonators, one side has a trigger marked "BREXIT" and the other has a trigger marked "LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION". It works remarkably well
 

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Old 2016-07-05, 12:45 PM   #40
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I really, really, *REALLY* think people should stop up and panicking about what *might* happen down the line because until Article 50 is invoked, nothing will change, and once Article 50 is invoked, there will be 2 years until a "Brexit" actually happens. And as there is currently no Prime Minister, and won't be one in place until September and then probably subjected to a snap election (if the opposition gets their goddamned act together), the *earliest* Article 50 could be invoked would be October this year, but it's more than likely October next year before it does (if it does, more on this below).

But there is a very high chance that Brexit as proposed by the Leave side will never, ever come to pass and it all comes down to migration: put simply, absolutely any deal made with the EU with regards to access to the single market is dependent on free movement of labour. Switzerland, long held as the sort of trade deal the UK would like to do in a Brexit scenario, has been told that if it does enact its referendum to set a quota on immigration, it will terminate it's access to the single market. So... we obey all EU laws, but pay them no money, but can't control immigration? BAD

Of course, there's the Norway model which is like the Swiss one but on steroids: Norway kicks in to the EU budget and receives a loss on its investment but only receives a moderate say on who that is spent, let alone any new rules, laws and regulations that the EU decides to enforce, or have a veto on any of them. When we're taking back control and follow the Norway model, what control are we taking back because, yup, we still have to allow the free movement of labour and so don't solve this pesky immigration problem.

I'd imagine that should our PM trigger Article 50 if he or she had, you know, gone on a 72 hour coke bender and completely lost their mind, they'd aim for a Norway model with more say on border control and less kickbacks to the EU and those two things will never ever happen.

So as to why Article 50 will not be triggered? Because there is a strict timetable from when it's triggered to when it's enabled. All current EU law has to be separated from UK law and go through the regulatory and statutory process that requires; some sort of trade deal with the EU for access to the single market will need to be hammered out and quickly, unless the Government wants to spend hundreds of millions of pounds on new safety and regulatory testing facilities at every port and airport in the country; some sort of principle trade deals will need to be signed with everyone else we trade with - and all of this has to be done within TWO YEARS. Oh, and we don't have any trade negotiators employed anywhere within the civil service. Like none.
But Norway and Switzerland don't have anywhere near the sort of clout the UK does - they are drastically smaller economies, for a start.

In spite of all the recent turmoil, the UK is still a major player (economically, of all the EU nations, we're only trumped by Germany). We'll certainly have more leverage to negotiate terms than the Swiss or Norwegians did.

I'm as in the dark as anybody else as to what the negotiations might bring. However, to say the only two possible outcomes are either the Swiss-type deal or the Norwegian-type deal is, I think, a bit simplistic. Both these nations have completely different agreements in place with the EU; who's to say our deal won't be different again?
 

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