Rebirth of the Soviet Union

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Computron
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Rebirth of the Soviet Union

Post by Computron »

With all the news over the last few days about Obama I find it quite disturbing that almost nothing has been made in the news about Russia heading back towards it's Soviet Union ways.

For me the first step was Putin creating the job role of Prime Minister for this term. In Russia a leader is only allowed to stand for 2 terms so after his 2 terms Putin created this role which for all intent and purpose gives him complete control anyway whilst havin a puppet in as President for 1 term. This puppet is also busy trying to change the constitution to allow a term to be 6 years instead of 4 years. This is designed not to extend his term as that would probably get rejected as it would appear selfish but to allow Putin 12 years of rule when he comes back in the next election (2 terms times 12)

On top of this earlier this year Russia marched its troops into Georgia, initially occupying it all before reverting to a disputed area and declaring that it is going to allow that land to become part of Russia.

Finally we have the missile defense system. Russia dispises this as it gives the USA an advantage over it so have responded over the last few days. Whilst we have been ignoring everything and cheering for Obama Russia have moved a load of its missile launchers across to the Polich border with the sole aim of bypassing the US Missile defense system and allow it to attack Europe ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/ukfs_news/hi/ ... 710362.stm ).

They have even threatened the new president to scrap the missile system, telling him that if America wants good relations with Russia then Obama has to scrap Bush's missile defense system ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/ukfs_news/hi/ ... 711723.stm ). This is the first time since the cold war that Russia have directly threatened to attack Europe. As the article says its no co-incidence that Russia chose the day after the US elections to make these threats

With both the UK and US countries tired of conflict could this be the oportunity Russia has been waiting for to reclaim lands it lost with the break up of the Soviet Union.

As much talk as our leaders do could the US and UK with two ongoing wars liberate the likes of Poland or the Czech Republic should Russia decide to take Eastern Europe back?

Apart from being able to do our leaders and country have the desire to go to war to liberate these countries. When Georgia was invade there was lots of critisism of it from the EU and the states but no on offered any military aid to help against the overwhelming Russian army

Would countries like Iran and others in the middle East use such a distraction then to attack Israel who would be left more exposed with its main bodyguard having to deal with even more wars?

With an economic depression (recession if we are lucky) are we seeing a similar pattern to the start of WW2 where the world was in a depression and Hitler was changing the laws in German to give him more power and whenever he took over any lands (Austria, Luxemborg etc..) the west shook their head in disaprooval but did nothing to stop it till it was too late.

I know its not a happy post but it will hopefully stimulate some well thought ourt posts and possibly create an interesting post, especially as I'm fairly certain that Russias recent antics are front page news in the states at the moment :)
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Post by RID Scourge »

I read something this morning about their setting up missiles in the Baltic area for the purpose of attacking Poland.

It's a very strange situation. If you asked me a year ago if I thought Russia would ever invade another nation and/or set up missile bases I would have thought you were crazy.

Is there anyone who can really step in? Not knowing much about the US' current military resources, I'm led to believe by the media that we're way too tied up in Afganistan and Iraq to effectively raise a fighting force to actually get Russia to back down.
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Post by Lord Zarak »

One of Russias problems/strengths is its pride. The break-up of the USSR seriously dented that pride. Coupled with a weak leader in Yeltsin, this lead to the uncontrolled spread of capitalism throughout the Western part of the country. This led to a massive gulf in terms of wealth in the country as a whole.

Consequently, Chechnya. A breakaway-wannabe state. The main aim of this was to restore pride in a broken nation and divert attention. Sorry to double post but me phone wont let me carry on
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Pt 2

Post by Lord Zarak »

Chechnya was a disaster, and the situation there has never been resolved. Further attempts to restore this pride was the theatre-hostage debacle, and lately, the Georgian incident. Both Georgia and Chechnya can be quantified as nation-(re)building exercises.

The placement of missiles near the eastern frindges can be seen as a similar exercise. By taking advantage of the current US administrations aggressiveness, the Russian leaders have played upon old fears to justify their own actions
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Post by Galvatron91 »

The threat is primarily to Poland with a more broad "we dare you to try something" approach to the rest of Europe. Russia's actions have made new here with CNN and PBS/NPR and Obama has already commented on the need to reign Russia back in and engage them. I honestly believe though that the US would not tolerate a Russian incursion into Poland as we did in 1945. Poland isn't Georgia either...and it has the backing of NATO, which for all Russia's blustering effectively counters any threat they could pose militarily.

The course of action I would love to see is for the US and Europe to quickly work towards finding an energy source that doesn't rely on fossil fuels, so we can move away from conducting business with states like this. So much of Russia's economy revolves around the sale of oil and natural gas that it would be effective policy to remove that source of income from them. More importantly, I would cause Russia to actually think about its policy rather than acting like the Soviets. But we also need to engage them and try to really get them to become a part of the international community...there have been many missed oppotunities here.
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Post by Denyer »

Galvatron91 wrote:I honestly believe though that the US would not tolerate a Russian incursion into Poland as we did in 1945.
I don't think anyone would -- I can't think of anything that would bring other countries out fighting more, actually. The headlines write themselves.
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Post by Lord Zarak »

With regards to the effective stranglehold that Russia has over fuel supplies to Europe and America, the balance between cap-in-hand and iron-fisted needs to be found rapid. Of course the world needs Russia integrated, and their position with regards Iranian enrichment is to be acknowledged. But by the same token a more restrained approach by Russia needs to be adopted to ensure that oil and gas flow remains unblocked.

Not that itll ever happen but a postscarcity system will encourage new forms of power
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Post by Cliffjumper »

Galvatron91 wrote:The threat is primarily to Poland with a more broad "we dare you to try something" approach to the rest of Europe.
Seems apt, considering the 21st century has largely been the 20th remixed.
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Post by Computron »

****PLaying Devils Advocate to stimulate some fun debate :)****
Galvatron91 wrote:I honestly believe though that the US would not tolerate a Russian incursion into Poland as we did in 1945. Poland isn't Georgia either...and it has the backing of NATO, which for all Russia's blustering effectively counters any threat they could pose militarily.
Realistically with two wars already in place what kind of action could either the US or UK take. Conscription could be an option but with niether the UK or US in direct peril from this would the public be willing to send their young men over to Poland to potentially be killed. I also don't think NATO is half as effective as you hint. NATO is great for peace keeping policing work but without the military might of the US and UK it does lack any real bite.

just some brief info I've found (note could be wrong as its wikipedia)

Russia - 1.2 million active troops, 28k tanks, 2000 planes

Highest NATO countries outside of UK & US
Italy - 250k troops, 1000 tanks, 400 planes
France - 230k troops, 1000 tanks, 350 planes

Germany and possibly Greece are there (UK is actually lower than I expected but we have imba training and USA technology and a comonwealth to call on :) )

Also the NATO countries who have the best chance of halting any Russian advance are in the far west and as mentined above might not be so eager to send men to die until Russia start getting closer to Germany

Finally I think Russia is really not happy with NATO anyway and probably wouldn't be totally against a war with them as NATO's insistence on joining up the countries that border Russia have annoyed it along with the declaration of independence for Kosovo which russia is refusing to acknoledge.
The course of action I would love to see is for the US and Europe to quickly work towards finding an energy source that doesn't rely on fossil fuels, so we can move away from conducting business with states like this.
IMO this should be teh main prioority of every country so we can not only reduce dependence on Russia but also the Middle East.
I would cause Russia to actually think about its policy rather than acting like the Soviets.
Sadly from what I have seen whilst looking at this it looks like Putin wants to relive the old glory days. He's been suspected of some involvement in the assasination of the Russian defector in the UK about a year ago and has been acused of numerous other crimes (admittedly by that same defector which might hint as to why he wanted him dead)
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Post by Galvatron91 »

I agree that Putin wants to relive the "glory" of the Soviet Union, unfortunately history is exposing that the glory was relatively contrived and manufactured through fear and propoganda. (By both East and West) I also think you underestimate NATO's capability and the ability of the US to redeploy and quickly rearm if needed. People in the US I believe are weary of a war that makes no sense. An attack on Poland, however, would be perceived here as an attack on the West, and a threat to us and I think it is something that people would mobilize on. Of course this is merely my theory, but I believe that Russian advances into Europe would be taken as a threat by the Americans. Also, you forget, there are still plenty of Cold Warriors around the US, both Democrat and Republican who would love to get their shot at throwing our technological marvels at the Russian forces. The US war wouldn't be fought on the ground, not initially and while Russia may have more troops and tanks, one has to look at the quality of the forces and what the opposition possesses.

The bottom line is that the US could conduct an air campaign for weeks, even months if need be. Stealth bombers and SMART missile technology can be rapidly deployed and, while expensive, it limits the amount of troops we need. Remember, the US really only uses its ground forces for two things in modern war, clean up after bombing and occupation/peace-keeping like operations. That means the US could effectively batter the Russian ground forces and cripple their air forces before troops were even called upon. It is doubtful we'd be an occupying force in Russia, so NATO troops could move in to bolster the defense of the territories as Russian forces were pulled back.

Of course, the X-Factor in all this are tactical nuclear weapons and whether this Russia administration is willing to use them when historical ones were not. Also, Germany is another hypothetical...they were brought into NATO to provide the numbers needed to balance security concerns in the 50s with the US engaged throughout the globe. Russian troops closing on their border could revive the militaristic spirit. Also, when economies are weak, wars put a lot of people back to work...so you could quickly see a NATO force that rapidly expands for deployment.
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Post by electro girl »

Russia does something a bit untoward,

The west- We dont like that lets jolly well tell them!

Russia- Critisism noted. Oh and before you forget we are a massive country filled with wheat, oil and gas, so y'know just something to think about.

The west- Oh... OK them erm we've just got something to do over here now erm... Take care.
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