Comic sales discussion

Post by **inflatable dalek** » Sat Apr 15, 2006 10:37 am

You should really keep track of these things you know, a unscrupelous person could take advantage of you.

Post by **Denyer** » Sat Apr 15, 2006 5:19 pm

Originally posted by Cliffjumper
I have absolutely no idea whether I ordered the thing from Steve Bax or not...

Well, it's currently Alex processing orders (Steve's back start of next month) but it appears Diamond didn't bother to send them any, and this has been reflected by other places. Drop him a mail, seems friendly...

Post by **Denyer** » Sat Apr 15, 2006 8:41 pm

http://www.transfans.net/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=5181

Originally posted by KingMob
I'd recommend you read Paul O'Brien's monthy analysis of the Marvel figures and the similar analysis of the DC figures by The Other Guy; you can find the old ones on google groups or some of the comic boards. These include calculable re-order sales which are normally several thousand copies. Also, CBG has a great archive of previous figures, going back years. They aid in following the market trends, which are normally rather predictable after a while, and the commentary made by the peeps going over the figs can be quite interesting/funny.

Mini's appear to normally lose half of their sales figures over their run. Series books (normally) take continual sales losses until an artifical spike is introduced - which can come in many forms - and after which the pattern resumes. There's no predictable set drop, although the drop between 1 and 2 is almost always the largest unless the book is not supported by the publisher and goes into freefall. 20% or more drops are not uncommon, and you regularly see books like the X-Men titles lose 8 or 9 percent every month. A "stable" book drops about 4% every month and a "rock solid" book loses 1-2%. The percentage drop is more helpful than straight numerical placing.
In this case, I am guessing that Stormbringer is intended to cause a spike in the sales for the G1 market.

Regardless TF is turning in great sales figs for IDW and I don't think there's any reason for any punters to be worrying over it. The nostalgia boom is over so stratospheric sales figs like DW started with are simply not going to happen. TF is a niche-market book put out by a small, highly competent company and the figs have to be looked at with that in mind IMHO.

Cliffjumper · Post by **Cliffjumper** » Sat Apr 15, 2006 9:04 pm

More happens in sales discussions than it the actual damn comic...

Cyberstrike nTo · Post by **Cyberstrike nTo** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 2:37 am

Originally posted by Cliffjumper
More happens in sales discussions than it the actual damn comic...

My thoughts exactly.

Angelophile · Post by **Angelophile** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 12:06 pm

Originally posted by Denyer
Well, it's currently Alex processing orders (Steve's back start of next month) but it appears Diamond didn't bother to send them any, and this has been reflected by other places. Drop him a mail, seems friendly...

My comic shop said the same. They'd been sent a single copy of BW3 with a note on the shipping list from Diamond that there was more to follow.

I snatched the one copy, but it seems like a widespread distribution problem.

Commander Shockwav · Post by **Commander Shockwav** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 5:50 pm

Now here's some encouraging news:

104 TRANSFORMERS GENERATIONS (IDW) #1* Estimated 23,700 copies

Wow. That's awesome for reprints.

Updated above

Ford DeceptiFocus · Post by **Ford DeceptiFocus** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 7:29 pm

Originally posted by Commander Shockwav
Now here's some encouraging news:

104 TRANSFORMERS GENERATIONS (IDW) #1* Estimated 23,700 copies

Wow. That's awesome for reprints.

Updated above

That just blows me away. Granted I bought one copy of each reprint since it was a #1 in the new "series", but still that seems crazy high for a reprint series. Not that I doubt the validity of those numbers--it just defies current though that the "nostalgia" over Transformers is over. Still, I am encouraged by those numbers.

Yet, at the same time, Generations #1 was BARELY beat out by Beast Wars. As much as I am loving the new Beast Wars series and hoping that it is turned into a series, that doesn't seem good that a 20+ year series of reprints would outsell something current.

Ford DeceptiFocus · Post by **Ford DeceptiFocus** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 7:32 pm

Originally posted by Denyer
http://www.transfans.net/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=5181

Originally posted by KingMob
I'd recommend you read Paul O'Brien's monthy analysis of the Marvel figures and the similar analysis of the DC figures by The Other Guy; you can find the old ones on google groups or some of the comic boards. These include calculable re-order sales which are normally several thousand copies. Also, CBG has a great archive of previous figures, going back years. They aid in following the market trends, which are normally rather predictable after a while, and the commentary made by the peeps going over the figs can be quite interesting/funny.

Mini's appear to normally lose half of their sales figures over their run. Series books (normally) take continual sales losses until an artifical spike is introduced - which can come in many forms - and after which the pattern resumes. There's no predictable set drop, although the drop between 1 and 2 is almost always the largest unless the book is not supported by the publisher and goes into freefall. 20% or more drops are not uncommon, and you regularly see books like the X-Men titles lose 8 or 9 percent every month. A "stable" book drops about 4% every month and a "rock solid" book loses 1-2%. The percentage drop is more helpful than straight numerical placing.
In this case, I am guessing that Stormbringer is intended to cause a spike in the sales for the G1 market.

Regardless TF is turning in great sales figs for IDW and I don't think there's any reason for any punters to be worrying over it. The nostalgia boom is over so stratospheric sales figs like DW started with are simply not going to happen. TF is a niche-market book put out by a small, highly competent company and the figs have to be looked at with that in mind IMHO.

Nice info--thanks!

And I completely agree--there isn't anything to worry about at the moment with the movie coming out in July 2007. Sales WILL spike with Stormbringer. Sales WILL spike in the months leading to the movie (because of trailers, toys leading up to the movie, etc.) and they will definitely spike once the movie comes out--and I would imagine they would spike yet again when the movie is released on DVD.

Cliffjumper · Post by **Cliffjumper** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 8:35 pm

It'll just be how big the spike will be... I believe DW still managed a spike for each new plot arc, and each new mini. If each spike adds a few thousand readers, but overall figures drop steadily, that's still not good - sadly, it might even force IDW into attempting to create too many spikes, which I think is what DW tried to do with Vol. 3's "chuck in a returning well-known character every issue" mentality.

I really don't think the movie will have that much of an effect on individual issues - it hasn't for Spider-Man or X-Men, which is why Marvel attempted to make "movie" comics to try and nab some money that way... Unless the movie is the same as the IDW stuff is at the time, or IDW try to spin a series off the end of the film, the cast and backstory would just be too alien. Public awareness of Transformers is still very, very good (I'd wager for a 20+ year old toyline, there're few better worldwide), just not that many seem to be interested enough to go looking for a comic. It's been the same with many of Marvel franchises, with successful animated series often co-existing with a struggling book (Iron Man and Fantastic Four ran as an animated series in 1994-1995, with both books in deep trouble). These things don't really crossover in any consistant pattern.

Angelophile · Post by **Angelophile** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:25 am

Yes, I wouldn't be relying too much on the movie. It's a year til it comes out and the title has to continue making money until then. Even then the spike is not gonna be huge. If the readership continues to dwindle it could be worrying.

If it settles at the steady 25-30k level of Dreamwave then it's probably sustainable, but so many multiple covers contributing to that figure too is still worrying.

Post by **Denyer** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 1:34 pm

Variants do make it difficult to estimate actual readership with precision, but you're assuming several copies are still being bought by a large number of individuals.

Angelophile · Post by **Angelophile** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 1:39 pm

Not a large number, but there certainly are completists. And selling the same numbers as DW did with one cover when you're producing 6 (or however many) certainly translates as a drop off. Though how many people buy more than one copy of the comic is, as you say, hard to judge.

Commander Shockwav · Post by **Commander Shockwav** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:03 pm

Beast Wars #2 sold out.

http://www.seibertron.com/news/view.php?id=7110

(Credit KingMob from transfans.net)

Looks like IDW is selling out of many titles. That's great news.

The way I interpret this, IDW has a good sense of how many issues should see print. This accurate estimation drives the cost of production down because few issues are being unnecessarily printed. DW, on the other hand, likely printed so many copies, fooled by the initial 80's nostalgia boom, that they likely severely overestimated how many would sell.

The more I read, the better I feel about IDW getting the TF license.

Cliffjumper · Post by **Cliffjumper** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:22 pm

Personally, I've never really doubted they had the business brains, but then the most competant company in the world can create a failing book. If even 10% of sales are due to multiple covers, that's a worry. I'm pretty hopeful that after some people getting their fingers burnt by hoarding DW variants, we won't have many people buying multiples as an investment... In a way, it's a bit harsh comparing DW sales figures to IDW, as the DW material had built up a bit of momentum - who knows how low the figures might have gone... if IDW are selling out, that's a good thing... DW never seemed to accept that the book wasn't going to bounce back and have Vol. 1 size scales, and I'm pretty sure overprinting would be very costly - especially considering they were probably overprinting crap like Mega Man as well.

Angelophile · Post by **Angelophile** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:41 pm

Well, sales naturally drop off for any title. Comparing a brand new title to one thats popularity has faded should put the new title in front. You don't get books picking up readers during a run unless something really exceptional happens.

Post by **Denyer** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 5:15 pm

Originally posted by Angelophile
Not a large number, but there certainly are completists. And selling the same numbers as DW did with one cover when you're producing 6 (or however many) certainly translates as a drop off.

Only if a large number of multiples are being bought. The math's fairly straightforward for the exclusives -- only a few hundred of each retailer incentive cover end up being produced, because most stores order fewer copies than are required to get them. Most stores, in fact, work week-to-week on a re-order basis with anything except guaranteed sellers. They can't afford to be left with dust-gathering stock. This extends to a lot of independent titles that actually sell very well initially -- copies can't be found a few issues in, because the retailer automatically dropped its preorders a couple of months ago in line with sales trends for falloff after #1 and #2. Comics have to be in-store for people to purchase them.

People realise very quickly that they can't be completists and that it's not possible for more than a handful to track down everything. Add to that the expense of doing so, and I fail to see how by issue #3 or #4 any sizeable fragment of the customer base is going to try.

Originally posted by Angelophile
Comparing a brand new title to one thats popularity has faded should put the new title in front.

If DWG1v1#1 hadn't been an aberration at the height of 80s fever, outselling big names from established publishers. The window of opportunity for Transfandom to wank over putting The Ultimates further down a chart closed way back. The DVDs are out of print, the t-shirts are in the sale bins, TRU finally managed to flog the reissues off at far less than RRP -- the revival fad is over. It's an ex-parrot.

Originally posted by Angelophile
You don't get books picking up readers during a run unless something really exceptional happens.

Ongoing books that stick around get spikes in which they pick up readers. And unless you call a team getting a new uniform, a revived character being added to the roster, a new story arc starting, or a change in artist/writer "exceptional", it's entirely the norm.

Originally posted by Cliffjumper
DW never seemed to accept that the book wasn't going to bounce back and have Vol. 1 size scales, and I'm pretty sure overprinting would be very costly

This might explain why those waiting for trade paperbacks were continually disappointed by low print runs -- if DW had sunk funds into unsold original issues and print runs of other bombed licensed titles, they'd a) be less likely to have the cashflow to set up lots of trades, and b) still be trying to push reorders through Diamond. They sold out of a couple of early issues and the second printings had different covers -- they may have been presuming this could continue long past it doing so.

Cliffjumper · Post by **Cliffjumper** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 5:54 pm

Word of mouth has saved comics before - Captain Marvel and Black Panther both gathered a few thousand readers through good notices, certainly enough to survive.

I still don't think it's valid to compare IDW and DW figures, even those for, say, G1 #10 and Infiltration #1. For a start, we've had a year or so inbetween, during which time Transformers has slipped from the consciousness of many. DW's ongoing lost readers hand over fist, with no sign it wouldn't have gone much, much lower. they started with a considerable fanbase and lost the majority of it for one reason or another... IDW are building a lot of it from scratch - they may have six covers (not all of which are freely avaliable), but they also have to deal with a lot fo people pissed off with the mess they ended up with the last time they bought a Transformers comic.

There's absolutely no reason anyone who bought the ongoing is automatically going to buy Infiltration beyond Transformers fan completists... Beyond the both featuring "G1" Transformers, everything else between the books is different - different writers, different artists, different companies, different continuities, different cast, different climate...

Ford DeceptiFocus · Post by **Ford DeceptiFocus** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:43 pm

Originally posted by Commander Shockwav

The more I read, the better I feel about IDW getting the TF license.

Amen.

Commander Shockwav · Post by **Commander Shockwav** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 8:31 pm

Here we go, official March numbers:

74 TRANSFORMERS INFILTRATION #3 30,344 copies
89 GI JOE VS TRANSFORMERS VOL 3 ART O/WAR #1 26,561 copies
94 TRANSFORMERS BEAST WARS (IDW) #2 25,737 copies
104 TRANSFORMERS GENERATIONS (IDW) #1* 24,104 copies

http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/8516.html