Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

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Skyquake87
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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Skyquake87 » Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:49 pm

Since the shops opened, seen a lot of folk now just paying lip service to wearing masks. Or should that be chin service, given that most people seem to be wearing them like they're stopping their jaws falling off.

Meanwhile, the Delta variant continues it's merry rampage thanks to our superb border controls (no one allowed out, but any f**ker can come in) which has seen our full reopening of everything ever delayed by a month.

Sigh.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Clogs » Fri Jun 25, 2021 5:20 pm

My first week back in the office and I must say that I am again travelling on public transport with oiks, idiots and the ignorant. So many not wearing face masks at all or using them as decorative neck items (which means they are wearing them, yes?).
No restrictions on numbers using the buses, either, or even a nod to social distancing. I’m not surprised the Delta variant and its kin are spreading.

Had my second jab on 7th June and thank goodness it wasn’t so bad as the first, considering I’d sustained a radial fracture the day before and they jabbed the same arm.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Clay » Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:36 am

Clay wrote:
Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:55 am
Although, reading about the transmissibility of the Delta variant, I wonder if things are on the mend or if this is just the eye of the storm until a vaccine-resistant strain emerges.
<sigh>

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... ar-AALs45l

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Clogs » Sun Jun 27, 2021 11:53 am

Anti-lockdown/anti-climate change march yesterday with thousands of idiots not wearing masks. They have no concept of anything beyond their egocentric ‘all up the ladder, Jack, I’m alright’ (and, of course, ‘I’m right’) attitude.

Can we have a new taxonomy, please, redefining Homo sapiens? :wall:

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Tantrum » Sun Jun 27, 2021 3:14 pm

Clay wrote:
Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:36 am
Clay wrote:
Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:55 am
Although, reading about the transmissibility of the Delta variant, I wonder if things are on the mend or if this is just the eye of the storm until a vaccine-resistant strain emerges.
<sigh>

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... ar-AALs45l
Clay's link said, "The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that about half of adults infected in an outbreak of the delta variant in Israel were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, prompting the government there to reimpose an indoor mask requirement and other measures." (emphasis added)

This study said the vaccines are over 90% effective against hospitalization from Delta variant. Together, it sounds like vaccination means even if you do get Delta, you're likely to have few or no serious symptoms, which is still pretty good.

If vaccines prevent serious illness from Delta, and Delta is more contagious than regular covid, maybe the best we can hope for is Delta spreads quickly enough that it infects enough unvaccinated people to reach herd immunity before a vaccine-resistant strain emerges.

Rhode Island's doing pretty well, with almost 70% of adults fully vaccinated. Some stores here still require masks for everybody. Other stores have no posted policy at all anymore. I still wear my mask everywhere since it's less hassle to just put it on than it is to locate the sign and read it. I do seem to be one of the few wearing one, though.

My dad's side of the family has had a few covid cases, mostly the ones who live in Florida. My mom's side has people refusing to get the vaccine. They're in NH, which has even higher rates of vaccination than RI, so herd immunity may keep them safe. At least until they visit my cousins in the midwest.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Warcry » Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:46 pm

I just got my second shot. I'm starting to feel a bit yucky. Hopefully it doesn't evolve into the full blown "fevers and feeling like death" that some of my acquaintances had for 12 hours or a day after their second shots.
Tantrum wrote:
Sun Jun 27, 2021 3:14 pm
Clay's link said, "The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that about half of adults infected in an outbreak of the delta variant in Israel were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, prompting the government there to reimpose an indoor mask requirement and other measures." (emphasis added)
I would guess that if Israel is using the same sort of PCR tests that we're using in Canada, the tests would still likely show you as COVID-positive if you got tested after getting exposed even if the vaccines are working perfectly. After all, your vaccine-induced antibodies won't actually start to DO anything until COVID molecules get into your respiratory system, so they're going to be hanging out there for a while until your antibodies kill them. PCR tests just detect the presence of the virus, not whether or not the virus is successfully reproducing or causing any symptoms. Now, if 50% of the hospitalizations or deaths in that outbreak were vaccinated, that would be reason to worry.
Tantrum wrote:
Sun Jun 27, 2021 3:14 pm
If vaccines prevent serious illness from Delta, and Delta is more contagious than regular covid, maybe the best we can hope for is Delta spreads quickly enough that it infects enough unvaccinated people to reach herd immunity before a vaccine-resistant strain emerges.
Unfortunately, based on the data I've found, you'd have a lot of people for Delta to burn through before the US approaches herd immunity. :(

Image

The slope of that US line has gotten really close to flat and it would need to be...well, significantly above even where Israel has flatlined before you're anywhere close to herd immunity. I think I've seen the number quoted at around 75%, so another 20% of your population would need to acquire natural immunity before you hit that...which is 60 million people. And really, that 75% was taking into account fully-vaccinated people and my graph only shows first doses, so it might even be worse than that. I think your President might need to send the National Guard out to shoot people with vaccine darts. :glance:

I don't know how much vaccine resistance is a real concern vs. it just being fearmongering clickbait, though. With every new variant that's been discovered, the initial articles have been all "ZOMG vaccines are useless now we're all going to die!"...followed a month or so later with actual research that shows the vaccines work just fine against them. My understanding is that the mRNA vaccines specifically target the virus's unique spike protein, and that protein is the main thing that makes COVID such a serious threat to us (because no other virus that infects humans operates like that). If it evolved in such a way that it didn't use those spike proteins, at that point isn't it just another bog-standard coronavirus? It could still be dangerous but all the info I've seen suggests that it would probably at least be less dangerous if that happened.
Tantrum wrote:
Sun Jun 27, 2021 3:14 pm
Rhode Island's doing pretty well, with almost 70% of adults fully vaccinated. Some stores here still require masks for everybody. Other stores have no posted policy at all anymore. I still wear my mask everywhere since it's less hassle to just put it on than it is to locate the sign and read it. I do seem to be one of the few wearing one, though.
You still need to wear a mask everywhere you go here in Manitoba, though that's pretty understandable considering we only started vaccinating people en masse a month or so after the US did. I think the latest news said 73% of eligible people had gotten their first dose and 37% had gotten their second, though that last number is climbing REALLY quickly. Which is good, but we also have to keep in mind that 16% of the population is under 12 and can't get a shot yet, and 73% of 84% is only around 60% of the total population. Kids might not get sick very often from COVID but they host and spread it if they catch it.
Tantrum wrote:
Sun Jun 27, 2021 3:14 pm
My dad's side of the family has had a few covid cases, mostly the ones who live in Florida. My mom's side has people refusing to get the vaccine. They're in NH, which has even higher rates of vaccination than RI, so herd immunity may keep them safe. At least until they visit my cousins in the midwest.
My sister works in elder care and doesn't want to get vaccinated. :( My wife's family, who are usually the crazy ones, have actually gotten their shots without any of the usual bitching. That was good at least.
Clogs wrote:
Sun Jun 27, 2021 11:53 am
Anti-lockdown/anti-climate change march yesterday with thousands of idiots not wearing masks. They have no concept of anything beyond their egocentric ‘all up the ladder, Jack, I’m alright’ (and, of course, ‘I’m right’) attitude.

Can we have a new taxonomy, please, redefining Homo sapiens? :wall:
We've had a lot of those protests lately too. :( A few weeks ago the RCMP arrested the leader of our national far-right political party at one of them and tossed him in a cell, which was a nice surprise since the cops usually just ignore these types of people.

On the way home from my shot I was less then happy to find that a bunch of bus stops had been plastered with anti-vax / anti-mask / pro Rebel Media propaganda stickers telling me that wearing a mask was "socialism / Nazism" (as if those two are interchangeable, and as if socialism is even bad). It's especially galling because the Rebel is frequented by actual neo-Nazis.

Happily, the majority of those stickers had been vandalized or torn down by people who aren't hate-fuelled lunatics.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Denyer » Mon Jun 28, 2021 11:20 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... t-vaccines
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550

Educated guess: delta involves viral load that's higher enough to be significant, which fits the facts of one dose being of limited effectiveness and higher deaths over the last year plus amongst hospital security guards, public transport workers etc where concentrations are higher and medical type PPE isn't used. i.e. previous exposure or vaccination will only reduce severity because people's immune systems still have to try to fight it off with whatever antibodies or other resistance they've built up.

The multi-billion dollar question is how high viral load can *get* with further variant mutation and poorly ventilated environments, because that's how you end up with cases there's no effective protection against.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Sades » Wed Jul 14, 2021 8:30 am

Warcry wrote:
Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:46 pm
We've had a lot of those protests lately too. :( A few weeks ago the RCMP arrested the leader of our national far-right political party at one of them and tossed him in a cell, which was a nice surprise since the cops usually just ignore these types of people.

Was that the guy who was running for Mayor of Calgary? Yeah, **** that guy.

I f**king hate Alberta. So many of the people here are garbage humans who can't see beyond their own nose.

We're "Open for summer!" because we reached whatever arbitrary vaccination goal was set to open everything back up (think it was 70%). They had to have a lottery to get that, though.

I had my second shot, I felt gross for a day and spent it sleeping, which is usually what happens when I'm sick so eh. I'm kinda torn, because on the one hand I feel that we can probably take a reasonable amount of risks now that we're both vaccinated. Our kid hasn't played with others for forever at this point, and I don't want her to grow up weird and isolated like I did (lolz). Plus she's going to actual in-person school in the fall unless the city gets hit hard with Covid again before then. We have plans to attend an outdoor event this weekend, our first actual outing since summer 2019. We're finally going to visit my dad, whom I have talked to and who has (carefully) stopped by a couple of times since this whole thing, but I haven't seen in months regardless.

On the other hand I'm uncomfortable taking risks when my kid can't get vaccinated, and there's no guarantee the vaccine is effective. Mine could be junk, or Hound's could be, or my dad's could be.

I wish more people masked up in public, as well. They be breathing on my husband and I'm not here for it.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Skyquake87 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:37 pm

Yup. The mask thing drives me bananas. Like you, we've decided this Monday was "freedom day" so now no-one gives a ****. Our feeble NHS Covid-App is pinging people like crazy (who'd have thought that having so many more people out and about would mean there's a greater risk of transmission/ spread and a need to self-isolate..?) and we're now struggling to stock shelves in supermarkets whilst staff are forced into isolation... Guhhh. Queue panic-buying. Hilariously, supermarket bosses are calling for the government to relax self-isolation guidelines where people are double-jabbed and test negative ...whilst removing all the social distancing stuff from within their stores.... yaay.

Meanwhile, our new Secretary Of State for health (the old one had to go as he was caught having an affair and breaching his own Covid-safe guidleines) tested positive and isolated, but the PM and our Chancellor (who'd come into contact with him) decided they didn't need to self-isolate as part of some convenient 'newly-announced' pilot program, before quickly deciding they should perhaps follow their own rules.

With leadership like this, it's no wonder the public are having a hard time buying into, well public health.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Clay » Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:58 pm

Skyquake87 wrote:
Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:37 pm
With leadership like this, it's no wonder the public are having a hard time buying into, well public health.
Won't argue that the former guy here in the US wasn't a force of nature for stupid unto himself, but here it's more of a bottom up problem now: Texas, Florida, and Missouri account for 40% of new Covid19 infections, and those states are all pretty derpy down to the local level. Even if the misinformation channels they're tuned to were to change overnight, those attitudes will remain baked in for months or years.

A more granular view yields completely predictable cases like this guy, which is great schadenfreude, but of course not everyone that remains unvaccinated is doing so out of choice. I know a few people with immune disorders that are unable to receive the vaccine that are more afraid now than they were when people were generally staying inside.

And of course the more the Delta and other variants spread among the willfully obstinate, the more opportunities we have to get a strain that's resistant to the vaccine and then we're all back to the beginning. ugh

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Tantrum » Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:24 am

The link I posted Jun 27 said 57.4% of RIers were fully vaccinated. This says today, 62.3% are fully vaccinated. That's 4.9% in a month and a half, or around 3.3% per month. At this rate, it'll take a coule months to reach 70%, and 5 or 6 months to reach 80%. I'm not sure when herd immunity kicks in. I'm also not sure if we'll maintain this rate.

Note: the 70% I mentioned back then referred to adults (18+) with at least one dose. These numbers are lower because they are fully vaccinated total population. We have not been unvaccinating people.

RI currently has over 200 new cases per day. Last August, it was around 100 per day. Other states, with lower vaccination rates, are doing even worse. 2020 is now the good ol' days of covid-19.

I wonder if people are just giving up on the idea of not getting covid. The choice may not be "take optional trips and get exposed" vs. "stay home as much as possible and stay safe", but "take optional trips and get exposed next month" vs. "stay home as much as possible and get exposed on your monthly trip to the grocery store next year". Either way, in a few years, you will be dealing with whatever the long term effects of covid on your body are.

I'm not at that point, yet. But, I'm not the type to out much anyway, so I'm not missing too much. There is an event Waterfire that I like. Braziers are lit in the canals in Providence. There's street performers, vendors, and fire dancers. Once, I was sitting and watching the flames in the canal when a woman asked me to move so she could do her show. I slid over a couple feet, and watched her twirl her flames maybe 10-12 feet from me. Plus, this all happens near the Providence Place Mall, which has a LEGO Store.

This is all outside (except the Mall). Still, it was cancelled last year due to covid. On July 28th, they announced a few dates for this year, Sept through Dec. I don't know if they'll cancel again. I wouldn't go to the Sept one even if there were no covid, since it'll be super crowded. But, I'm considering an October one.

I've got my shots, have no known comorbidity factors, and I'd be outside (except for the LEGO store, where'd I'd double mask), so the risk is low. Still, it'll be a crowd of people for a couple hours, so the safe thing to do is skip it. And, if there were an end in sight, I would. But, if we've really decided to let 30% of the country keep this going forever, I'm not sure I see the point in staying healthy if all I'm going to do is work, go to the grocery store, and sit at home.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Denyer » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:22 am

Avoiding contact with it is likely to be impossible, since current vaccines don't do particularly well at preventing transmission of the delta variant. It's a question of avoid dangerous levels of exposure, and unventilated places are the biggest risk in that respect -- that seems to be why delta is successful too, it's mainly that there's higher viral load produced, i.e. more particles, to be simplistic. With antibodies and other resistance most people will still fight it off, but "most" doesn't include billions of people at the moment, and that's where the risk of more serious variants comes in.

So take vaccines when available and try not to get any other serious health issues or get old, basically. A concerning thing is signs of what effectively amounts to brain damage in milder cases -- and that's not a new thing in general, we've only just had a few decades where environmental exposure to lead, asbestos, etc has been significantly reduced -- but when you've got a pathogen that can spread from lungs into blood and other tissue that's something that needs better medical understanding.

Saw someone recently compare to polio, it being another virus that spread through populations in a similar way -- small numbers seriously affected, but a risk of longer term damage and that's what (rightly) terrified people at the time. We don't have many of the Western polio generation left to learn the lessons from.

Might do a bit more shopping where warranted, and see a few more people in person, but otherwise TBH my habits haven't actually changed that much.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Clay » Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:02 am

A couple of days ago I found out that my brother, who is vaccinated, tested positive and now has to quarantine for ten days (I haven't actually seen him in person since April, so there's no exposure to me from him, but he does live in the same area). And today I learned that a friend in Virginia, who is also vaccinated, tested positive despite being asymptomatic.

As for me, I'm due to start teaching composition classes in-person at the local university on Tuesday, so... yay to that, I guess. I'm assuming it's a matter of "when" the university switches back to online-only as it was last year, not "if." Hopefully it'll be before too many people get infected, myself included, but during my late-night run to the grocery yesterday, I didn't observe a general sense of caution on display.

My only "back to normal" activity scheduled that's now in jeopardy is a trip to TFCon at Baltimore in October. I'm supposed to be presenting an hour long version of my Optimus Prime essay, so I certainly hope the convention can go on without incident, but I'm preparing to be disappointed.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Denyer » Sun Aug 15, 2021 1:42 pm

The UK, desperate to not stop at giving the world the Kent variant, is a day away from giving up trying to get contacts to isolate (if fully vaccinated) which effectively means an end to both isolation and testing -- and presumably trying to hide the stats for deaths and serious side-effects, whilst trying simultaneously to use Afghanistan as a distraction but make out it's all the US's fault rather than any UK govt decisions.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Denyer » Mon Aug 16, 2021 1:09 pm

Not starting another thread, but covid's not going to be the defining thing about this US presidency or legacy of the current incumbent is it? Abandoning a country to rape, torture and oppression is never exactly good optics, but when it ends up producing organised terrorism and further 9/11 type events that's hard to deflect.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Clay » Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:34 am

It's not great, no. One of the comments from the cable media engine that struck me as somewhat sage, however, is that the current collapse of the Afghani government was a foregone conclusion whether the withdrawal happened now, ten years ago, or ten years in the future.

I think it may have been the same fellow commenting that pointed out that the Vietcong at least took a week or so to fully control Saigon, whereas the Taliban took 24 hours or less. And the fact that it took so little time and seemingly met so little resistance means that foreign military units really were the only thing propping up the illusion of an Afghan state.

I can't think of any good paths.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Denyer » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:42 am

Agree it was a foregone conclusion, failed state, etc, although with significant responsibility for what's now happening to civilians sitting with ex-occupiers. I think the only "good path" is rescuing civilians trapped in the situation, covering "anyone who doesn't want to be overrun by armed militants". And possibly once that's done razing what's left, although that's obviously a far more complex matter.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Tantrum » Thu Aug 19, 2021 2:14 pm

Leaving Afghanistan was going to be a shitshow no matter what. If someone wants to argue that Biden's decisions made the difference between shit with little bits of undigested corn in it versus shit without, maybe they have a point. But, it's still better than another 20 years of constipation.

We spent 20 years trying to build an Afghan army that barely lasted 20 hours.


I had my first dentist appointment in 18 months yesterday. I'd cancelled twice due to covid. Now that I'm vaccinated, I felt safe going. The dentist gave me some special foamy mouthwash to use before she got to work Other than that, it was a normal cleaning/checkup.

Vaccine booster shots may be needed after 8 months. I forget if that means 8 months after the 2nd shot (which for me is Dec 30) or 8 months after being fully vaccinated (Jan 13). Anti-vaxx people will probably cite this as evidence that vaccines don't work, some while on their way to get their tetanus booster.

Dr John Valentine in Alabama is refusing to treat unvaccinated patients. He's a primary care physician/GP, not an ER doc, so he's not standing in the way between the unvaccinated and their care. He's got a few of his patients asking him where to get the vaccine so they can keep him as their doctor.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Denyer » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:06 pm

I'm surprised workplace health insurers aren't taking a harder line yet.
The dentist gave me some special foamy mouthwash to use before she got to work
There's sense in it. Same sort of disruptive principle as lipids and soap.
Leaving Afghanistan was going to be a shitshow no matter what. If someone wants to argue that Biden's decisions made the difference between shit with little bits of undigested corn in it versus shit without, maybe they have a point.
He seems to have set a politically-motivated date for withdrawal ahead of 9/11 rather than do so during winter months in which military campaigns are more limited.

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Re: Covid 19 / everybody PANDEMIC

Post by Clogs » Sat Aug 21, 2021 1:04 pm

In the UK, from about now, no under 18 year old is required to self-isolate if they’ve been in contact with someone who has tested positive/has symptoms for C-19. Colleges and schools start back in a couple of weeks, so I’m thinking we’re in for an interesting Autumn and Winter... Expect lies, damn lies and questionable decisions ahead.

Bus passengers have, for the most part, stopped wearing masks or continue to opt for chin holders, again setting up transmission routes (sorry for that pun) for the virus. Soon, the potentially disease carrying sprogs will be back on those same buses and, given that employers will happily sack anyone testing positive/showing symptoms, they could be accompanied by ill parents or carers. Shoppers are eschewing masks, too; needless-to-say, I’m not, considering the gradual drop off in vaccination.

‘Flu season ahead, too. I’m fit, I’m healthy, but I’m getting on a bit (I’ve got two white hairs in my right eyebrow, I’ll have you know - gimme respect!) and I’m not looking forwards to a potentially perfect storm. I hope it doesn’t happen but, just in case, I’m starting to stockpile loo rolls :laugh:

EDIT: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Everyone in the UK is acting like it’s all gone away. It has, of course, for the dead.

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