Rurudyne's Daily Global Cooling Watch

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Rurudyne's Daily Global Cooling Watch

Post by Rurudyne » Sun Feb 17, 2008 8:33 pm

The Sun on Vacation: Day 44 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.



Friends, as many people will attest: it has been somewhat cold of late. There has, for example, been snow in both Bagdad and Jerusalem recently and Hong Kong is having a record cold snap.

I’m having fun here and I don’t really believe it’s the dawn of a new Ice Age — or so I would hope for all our sakes. Also, this is an issue largely independent from AGW since it deals with "global warmth" rather than "warming" (as I'll address later in the post).

But there is substance to this Watch and with it an explanation for why this winter is the way it is: solar radiance.

There is a strong link between both sunspot activity and the sun's magnetic flux as to how brightly it shines. Right now both of these have bottomed out (here's a link to the Canadian observatory that keeps track of solar flux, updates daily): in terms of sunspot activity this means only a few or no sunspots; in terms of the solar flux a value of 64 to 68 is just about as low as it gets.

As you can see from today's solar flux values:
[INDENT]
Flux Density Values in sfu for 18:00 on 2008:02:17

Julian Day Number : 2454514.239

Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.861

Observed Flux Density : 0070.8

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0069.2


URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.2
[/INDENT]
... we have indeed bottomed out. Other daily values I've personally seen since I began toying with this "Watch" idea are:
[indent]
Density Values in sfu for 22:00 on 2008:01:30

Observed Flux Density : 0073.6
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0071.4



Flux Density Values in sfu for 22:00 on 2008:02:12

Observed Flux Density : 0072.2
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0070.4



Flux Density Values in sfu for 20:00 on 2008:02:13

Observed Flux Density : 0070.5
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.7



Flux Density Values in sfu for 18:00 on 2008:02:15

Observed Flux Density : 0069.9
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.2



Flux Density Values in sfu for 18:00 on 2008:02:16

Observed Flux Density : 0070.3
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.6
[/indent]
For a MUCH longer term perspective consider this chart of the solar flux for the last several decades:
Image

You may notice, for example, the period from 1966 to 1976 that had people so concerned about global cooling and the beginning of a new ice age.

As for sunspot activity this chart shows our current status too:
Image

As does the information from NOAA's site: Solar Cycle Progression. Also, for a nice "real-English" discussion of sunspots I would suggest this (link).

It would seem a given that if old Sol is putting out less energy that we would in fact be cooler.

So what is going on here?

Well, Solar Cycle 23 which has been an ongoing concern for around the last 11 years has reached a minimum at which point Solar Cycle 24 should begin:
Image


But Solar Cycle 24 just doesn't seem to have any oomph to get started. As you may have noticed above NOAA announced the first official SC24 sunspot on January 4 of this year; however, what that doesn't tell you is that SC23 was not behaving normally.

The usual length of time from a Maximum to a Minimum is 33 months +/- 5 months. Since SC23 reached its maximum in January of 2004 it has been 49 months and SC24 is still sputtering.

Does that mean we will enter another minimum like the Maunder Minimum (from about 1645 to 1715) or the Dalton Minimum (1800 to 1810)?

No. Not at all.

But unlike the spurious claims made in the Hong Kong article above, Global Warming cannot be the cause of Global Cooling. Think about it for a moment: isn't the nature of AGW global warming to increase the amount of heat retained? If so then even AGW global warming effects can only be a moderating consideration if, because the sun turns down for a bit, things cool off.

But, someone might ask, what of El Niño and La Niña? Well, it turns out that both are driven by solar activity (link).

You see, when we are talking about solar irradiance we are talking about something that is BEHIND either global warming or cooling. This is because the sun provides virtually all warmth to our atmosphere and so all discussions about thinks like green house gases are secondary to what the sun is doing. If the sun were to enter a Gore-Hansen Minimum the only thing that AGW could possibly do is to moderate some of it.

I will update this thread until, hopefully, SC24 finally gets off its lazy butt and starts cranking out some energy. NOAA had predicted this to occur in March plus or minus 6 months.

Only time will tell.
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Post by 13thScorpio » Sun Feb 17, 2008 9:10 pm

Ummm...wow.(gibbering nonsense)Where's Axe?These numbers and charts are his thing.Waaay over my head.(Goes back to nonsencical stuff.)

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Post by redman prime » Sun Feb 17, 2008 10:44 pm

ah, the new age hippy and the tools at their disposal.

It's nice here, 82F today, so about 23C, ballpark with math in head.

I'm cozy, shorts and a T-shirt outside next to the pool.
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Post by Notabot » Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:03 am

So what you're saying is that the power of the evil Republicans reaches all the way to the Sun?!!?

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Post by Rurudyne » Mon Feb 18, 2008 1:27 am

Notabot wrote:So what you're saying is that the power of the evil Republicans reaches all the way to the Sun?!!?
:halo:
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Post by Chromia » Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:50 pm

All I know it...it's freezing here! I was promised some global warming...

Where is it!?

I hate the cold! :halo:

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Post by Rurudyne » Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:46 pm

The Sun on Vacation: Day 45 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Monday Update
Flux Density Values in sfu for 18:00 on 2008:02:18

Julian Day Number : 2454515.239

Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.897

Observed Flux Density : 0071.3

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0069.7


URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.7

Could this be some upward movement?

Stay tuned tomorrow!
Same Global Cooling Watch!
Same Global Cooling Thread!
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Post by Clogs » Mon Feb 18, 2008 9:11 pm

The Met Office have today, it seems, confirmed that this has been a very cold Winter indeed for the UK. Furthermore, all those pictures of huge Fox's Glacier Mint polar bears on tiny hunks of ice was a bit off, since the ice would appear to have re-established itself and then some.

Every time I read the global warming/cooling stuff I get this image of Deep Thought conversing with Vroomfondle and Magicthighs...
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Post by Rurudyne » Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:01 pm

The Sun on Vacation: Day 46 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Tuesday Update
[indent]
Flux Density Values in sfu for 18:00 on 2008:02:19

Julian Day Number : 2454516.239

Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.934

Observed Flux Density : 0071.5

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0069.9


URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.9
[/indent]
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Post by slartibartfast » Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:43 am

:afro: - thanks for the groovy article rurudyne. I do like the anti-nombrilistic approach to the whole climate change thing.

Not saying that the greenhouse is a benign phenomenon, but does the solar activity <-> global climate theory still have trouble being recognised as a valid explanation ? I haven't been following the debate for a while, it all got a bit political and lobby-ish.

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Post by Rurudyne » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:07 am

Ok, you sent me to the dictionary there and all it had was...

nombril, n. "the point on an escutcheon just below the true center; naval point"

so ... anti-nombrilistic would be 'a point raised from true center' or something 'breaking the surface'?

And yes ... GW due to atmospheric effects is the political hot potato that seems to keep solar activity off the front burner (so to speak). But the thing about the sun is, well, you just can't bribe ... er, lobby it like you can your average legislator. :)

(cynicism: the other gift that keeps on giving)

In the meantime the ice is back as Clogs mentioned:

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008 ... c-ice.html

http://sermitsiaq.gl/klima/article30834 ... nt&lang=EN

EDIT, that second link has this to say: "To sum things up, global warming hasn't been called off. In the meanwhile, western Greenlanders will have to accept that the cold weather continues for some time."

Well, here's hoping SC24 starts soon.
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Post by slartibartfast » Wed Feb 20, 2008 8:38 am

ah sh*t. Sorry dude, I get my languages mixed up sometimes.
http://dictionnaire.reverso.net/francai ... ombrilisme

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Post by Rurudyne » Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:27 pm

The Sun on Vacation: Day 47 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Wednesday Update
[indent]
Flux Density Values in sfu for 22:00 on 2008:02:20

Julian Day Number : 2454517.406

Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.977

Observed Flux Density : 0071.2

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0069.6


URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.6
[/indent]
Aaaaaand ... I learned a new word! :)
Though if you think about it, you could say I mistook an 'outie' for an 'innie'.... Sorry, naval humor.
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Post by Notabot » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:27 am

An adjusted flux density of 69.6 whilst such a nominal increase of Carrington Rotation? Kids, grab your blankets. We're headed to the bunker.

On a side note, I like the whole "Julian Day Number" thing. I'm going to start scheduling things that way from now on. But instead of "Julian Day Number," I'll say "stardate," and I'll say it like I'm wearing a futuristic spandex uniform, and I'll say it mostly after I say "Captain's Log," and I'll always say it in a thick Hispanic accent. Just to really make it my own.

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Post by 13thScorpio » Thu Feb 21, 2008 11:17 am

Has there been much change in it?These numbers are kinda making my head go loopy(Or the beer is) and I'm getting tired of 20 belows here.

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Post by Rurudyne » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:51 pm

Notabot, about Julian Dates ... this is the absolute count of days that have elapsed since Noon 1 January 4713 BC.

Does any one want to take a stab in the dark at how they arrived by that standard? Must've been a big dart board....

Likewise, Carrington Rotation represents one full rotation of the Sun as seen from the Earth. Which is kinda like measuring the Earth's day by how long a rotation appears for an observer on the moon.

Also kinda loopy.

13thScorpio ... on the bright side you could, in theory, use freezing weather to strengthen you brew. Ice brew is made by allowing the beer or wine to partly freeze, you cut off and discard the ice (which would be mostly water). No idea what it does to the taste though....
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Post by Rurudyne » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:12 pm

The Sun on Vacation: Day 48 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Thursday Update
[indent]
Flux Density Values in sfu for 18:00 on 2008:02:21

Julian Day Number : 2454518.239

Carrington Rotation Number : 2067.007

Observed Flux Density : 0071.7

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0070.2


URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0063.1

[/indent]
Well ... we're out of the 60's for a moment.
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Post by Rurudyne » Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:18 pm

A Blast From the Past:
Image
Please refer to the graph "Monthly Mean 2800 MHz Solar Flux (Observed)" for comparison. In particular the relative lull from 1965 to 1977-78 when the maximum solar flux didn't reach 200.
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Post by Clogs » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:38 pm

Now I understand where I have my personal beliefs in interstatial ice ages and global cooling from - the good days of the mid-70s. I must've glanced up from the Chaucer and Shakespeare and caught the idea subliminally.

That Julian Date thing: I know history is 'old', but my history books say Julius Caesar didn't live that long ago ;)
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Post by Rurudyne » Fri Feb 22, 2008 6:29 pm

The Sun on Vacation: Day 49 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Friday Update
[indent]
Flux Density Values in sfu for 18:00 on 2008:02:22

Julian Day Number : 2454519.239

Carrington Rotation Number : 2067.044

Observed Flux Density : 0072.2

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0070.7


URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0063.6
[/indent]
So here's a question: when should this "global cooling watch" end?

Looking at some of the data I've posted it seems like a flux value of 80 or so usually means things are cooking again; however, it seems we reached almost 95 last December before things quieted down –again–.

Any suggestions on when this should go from daily updates, to weekly, to none?
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